NCER Working Paper Series Forecasting increases in the VIX: A time- varying long volatility hedge for equities

Since the introduction of volatility derivatives, there has been growing interest in option implied volatility (IV). Many studies have examined informational content, and or forecast accuracy of IV, however there is relatively less work on directly modeling and forecasting IV. This paper uses a semi-parametric forecasting approaching to implement a time varying long volatility hedge to combine with a long equity position. It is found that such a equity-volatility combination improves the risk-return characteristics of a simple long equity position which is particularly successful during periods of market turmoil.